At the end of last year I was baffled by the different levels at which Shale Gas in US had opened opportunities for that nation. Was more or less obsessed by its notion and by what
it meant for the world.
I was also impressed by what NA and some parts of EU had already achieved in utilizing this opportunity to its maximum level.
And that's what made me a tad bit sad that India or Asia as a whole were nowhere near the mark of being considered a moving force in this new trend.
But since then, things have changed a lot and these changes have made me a little overly optimistic about Asian shale gas story.
And why not?!
Especially, with China sitting on 1200 tcf of it (double of US). Consider these:
(1) The 3 big dadies - COONC, CNPC, and Sinopec - are busy planing on routing technology through Canadian firms.
(2) A catalyst to this process is Canadian displeasure over the delay of Keystone 2 pipeline by US.
(3) Also, we are all aware about technology duplication expertise of Chinese organisations
(4) Large EU/US corporations are already on the job of discovery & research of in Shale China!
(5) Shell and CNPC are exploring it in Sichuan province (this province accounts for 40% of Shale deposit estimates in China) while Hess is exploring it in Xinjiang province with CNPC as local partner
(6) Around 400 Shale wells are already scheduled to be dug 'outside' US in 2014, majority of them would be in China and Russia (according to Wood MacKenzie's latest report)
(7) The use of On-shore rigs have increased by 10% in Asia, most of them for Shale (Latest report by Baker Hughes)
While on Indian front, I believe estimates of 64 - 96 tcf has made Govt and private companies to step up their game. Consider these:
(1) Reliance has invested heavily in Marcellus Gas fields through major players there while ONGC and OIL have done in some other fields and all three are already reaping fruits out of these investments. This means highly possible Tech Transfer in near future.
(2) A Shale Gas policy in Feb'13 and allowance of exploration to OIL and ONGC in Sept'13 have signaled Rel to strongly work out its strategy.
(3) To an energy hungry billion+, this could mean 15 - 26 yrs of limitless power, stabler currency and a massive economic boost - Something Govt will be hungry for.
I am hoping these developments spring out some promising results between mid-2014 or early-2015 for Asia.
For further reference on Indian side of the story, I recommend reading this report by TERI India, which not only briefs about the development of Shale Gas in India but also cautions about the flip-sides
& pitfalls and thus giving a necessary realistic viewpoint.
3 comments:
Excellent insight. In fact, with the US having taken over from Russia as the highest producer of energy from gas, it is surprising that countries that have huge potential are shying away.
Environmental concerns not taken away, India could leapfrog many nations as well as answer most of its energy issues. However, Government apathy and scepticism will prevail as always.
Just got a comment from the Cheif Editor of the premier authority on chemicals in the nation.
===Quote===
On shale gas – I think China will get it right soon. But it will take about 8-10 years for commercial production to happen. India is still unsure how much gas is in the ground although some US studies show that it is not insignificant. The constraints in India will be access to land (remember we are a congested nation) and water!
===Unquote===
Very strong and vital points that I missed touch upon here.
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